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Regional scale assessments of future chronic coastal hazard impacts are critical tools for adaptation planning under a changing climate. Probabilistic simulations of hazard impacts can improve these assessments by explicitly attempting to quantify uncertainty and by better simulating dependence between complex multivariate drivers of hazards. In this study, probabilistic future timeseries of total water levels (TWLs) are generated from a stochastic climate emulator (TESLA; Anderson et al., 2019) for the Cascadia region, USA for use in a chronic hazard impact assessment. This assessment focuses on three hazard metrics: collision, overtopping, and beach safety, and also introduces a novel hotspot indicator to identify areas that may experience dramatic changes in hazard impacts compared to present day conditions. Results are presented for a subset of the Cascadia region (Rockaway Beach Littoral Cell, Oregon) to demonstrate the power of the probabilistic impact assessment approach. The results highlight how useful spatially varying, scenario-based hazard impacts assessments and hotspot indicators are for identifying which areas and types of hazards may require increased adaptation support. This approach enables us to piece apart the relative uncertainty of hazards as driven by SLR versus natural variability (caused by variation in climate, weather, and hydrodynamic drivers).more » « less
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Kattge, Jens; Bönisch, Gerhard; Díaz, Sandra; Lavorel, Sandra; Prentice, Iain Colin; Leadley, Paul; Tautenhahn, Susanne; Werner, Gijsbert D.; Aakala, Tuomas; Abedi, Mehdi; et al (, Global Change Biology)
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